I OPINION
CONTENTS
Outside Forces May
Impact Mideast Talks
AARON LERNER
A
n underlying assump-
tion made by advo-
cates of territorial
compromise for Israel is that
negotiated guarantees can
somehow take the place of
security. We are approaching
a watershed period both
within the Middle East and
in the world in general.
Changes in the offing, totally
independent of the Arab-
Israeli conflict, may have a
profound effect on the viabili-
ty of a negotiated guarantee.
At some point in the near
future, King Hussein of Jor-
dan will die from causes
natural or otherwise. Who or
what will replace this monar-
chy is anybody's guess. There
is no question that the large
armed Palestinian population
in Jordan would take the
demise of the king as an op-
portunity to take over the
country.
The Hashemite military
force which has been loyal to
King Hussein will want to
save its own skin. It will try
Just as the future
of the Middle East
is uncertain, so is
the future of the
great powers.
to do this by either capitulat-
ing to Palestinian forces or
carrying out a preemptive
bloodbath which would make
"Black September" seem like
a picnic. Either approach will
most likely result in the long
run in a Palestinian-
controlled state in Jordan.
The Syrians, who view Jor-
dan as being part of Greater
Syria, may enter the fray to
stake out their claim to the
territory. The last time Syria
invaded Jordan they backed
off only when faced by an
Israeli mobilization.
The current regime in
Egypt is being propped up by
American-sponsored food sub-
sidies. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) is
pushing Egypt to reduce the
"bread and circuses" and
there is no guarantee that the
American support will con-
tinue indefinitely. Along with
the economic crisis and
runaway population growth,
the odds are at least even that
Islamic fundamentalists will
take over Egypt.
Aaron Lerner is a member of
Detroit's Orthodox Jewish
Community.
The Syrian economy also is
in shambles. The iron fist of
Assad (a member of a minor-
ity group himself) so far
has managed to suppress
rebellious forces in his
country but there is no telling
how long he will remain in
power.
With the Iran-Iraq war con-
cluded there are huge
military forces on both sides
left with nothing to do, and
manpower far in excess of the
active forces which even the
U.S. could muster for action
in the area. Iraq may renew
its conflict with Syria or
alternatively all of these
countries may opt to focus
their energies against Israel.
The Saudis had. their own
bloodbath suppressing a
revolt of Islamic fundamen-
talists in Mecca. With in-
creasing economic strains on
Saudi Arabia, Islamic funda-
mentalists may succeed in
spearheading a revolution or
place the Saudi government
in the position that they have
to seek foreign adventures
(e.g. attacks against Israel) to
shift the focus away from local
problems.
Just as the future of the
Middle East is uncertain, so
is the future of the great
powers.
The U.S.S.R. is under ex-
treme pressure. Gorbachev's
liberalization program ap-
pears to be already faltering
in its race against time to
significantly improve the
Soviet economy. The union
itself is falling apart as many
states begin moves to break
off.
China is emerging as a ma-
jor power which may very
well transcend the U.S.S.R. in
influence and importance in
the Middle East. Despite this
growth, China faces intense
internal disenchantment due
to inflation, corruption and a
failure to provide the majority
of the population with bene-
fits from the economic
liberalization.
And what about the U.S.?
While the American
government is stable, to date
the U.S. has had a poor record
of honoring its security com-
mitments in the crunch. In
1967, the American reaction
to the closing of the Straits of
Tiran by Egypt was to conve-
niently forget their written
assurances to Israel to keep
the route open. In the late
'60s, when a U.S.-sponsored
security agreement between
Israel and Egypt was grossly
violated by Egypt, the
Continued on Page 12
24
CLOSE-UP
Images Of Israel
JACK EISENBERG
A photographic look at Israel's
people on her 41st birthday.
57
BUSINESS
Legacy Of Color
RENEE GLOVINSKY
From house painting to $20 million
in annual business for Mercury Paints.
LOOKING BACK
Down Memory Lane
61
WENDY ROLLIN
Visiting the Old Neighborhood
isn't easy with your 13-year-old.
INSIGHT
Keeping The Flame
64
ARTHUR J. MAGIDA
Jehan Sadat continues to guard
her husband's memory and vision.
77
ENTERTAINMENT
24 By Dint Of Fate
RITA CHARLESTON
Comedian Marty Brill has turned
tragedy into a brilliant career.
TEENS
Making A Discovery
105
Area teens are learning about more
than Israel during a semester away.
110
LIFESTYLES
61
New Neighbor
CARLA JEAN SCHWARTZ
Mikhail Kogan struggled out of Russia
and is struggling in Detroit.
DEPARTMENTS
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Inside Washington
Background
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For Seniors
Here's To
Fine Arts
For Women
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Obituaries
CANDLELIGHTING
105
8:19 p.m.
May 5, 1989
Sabbath ends May 6 9:25 p.m.
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
7