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srael and the Palestinians
must agree to a gradual
and increasingly broad
autonomy arrangement to
build confidence and trust
before trying to find a perma-
nent solution to their conflict.
That is the conclusion of a
report unveiled last week by
the Jaffee Centre for
Strategic Studies.
The study, The West Bank
and Gaza: Israel's Options for
Peace, considered six options
for a final settlement and con-
cluded that, under present
circumstances, none of them
could solve the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict.
The fruit of nine months of
research, the report calls for
an interim period of 10 to 15
years which will give both
sides time to develop new at-
titudes toward one another.
Other confidence-building
measures include a halt to
Jewish settlement by Israel
and to acts of terror by the
Palestinians.
The report does not rule out
a Palestinian state after the
transition period.
The recommendations are
included in a pamphlet
separate from the report itself
because they "were not to the
liking of all the American
sponsors," which included the
Washington Institute, the
American Jewish Congress
and the Anti-Defamation
League, according to Jaffee
Centre Director Maj. Gen.
(res.) Aharon Yariv, a former
chief of army intelligence.
Harry Wall, the executive
director of the ADL in Israel,
however, said the sponsors
agreed before the project
began that if there were to be
recommendations moving the
report "out of the academic
and into the political," the
Centre "should present them
on its own!' •
"The intifada was in its
sixth month when we decided
we must do something!" said
Joseph Alper, deputy head of
the Jaffee Centre and project
coordinator. "We had a sense
of urgency which made us feel
we must , study all the
possibilities for breaking the
deadlock in which we felt
Israel had been trapped!'
The experts studied six op-
tions for a solution to the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict,
ranging from annexation of
the occupied territories, with
the transfer of the Palesti-
nians an implied outcome, to
the establishment of a
Palestinian state alongside
Israel.
Other options included the
status quo, autonomy in its
wider and narrower defini-
tions, unilateral withdrawal
from the Gaza Strip, and a
Jordanian-Palestinian
confederation.
Each option was analyzed
on the basis of 11 criteria: the
Israeli domestic setting,
Palestinian reactions, effects
"The intifada was
in its sixth month
when we decided
we must do
something," said
Joseph Alper,
deputy head of the
Jaffee Centre and
project
coordinator. "We
had a sense of
urgency."
on Israeli Arabs, the Arab
states, demographic and
geographic aspects, terrorism,
sociopolitical ramifications
for the Israel Defense Forces,
security and war risks,
American reactions, the
Soviet response and economic
aspects.
Even though the study was
Israel-centered, it carefully
discussed the ramifications of
each option for the Palesti-
nians and the Arab states
"because there is no way to
unilaterally impose any ar-
rangement and hope for peace
in the area," said Alper. The
study assumes that Syria will
be the least willing of the par-
ties to accept a long-lasting
settlement.
The experts reached the
conclusion that none of the
six options considered had
any realistic chance of accep-
tance by all the parties.
They found that the status
quo was feasible for the time
being, but that its advantages
were being increasingly offset
by negative developments.
They urged Israel to look for
a viable alternative and, in
the meantime, to search for
ways to alleviate the worst ef-
fects of the current situation.
Other findings included:
• Autonomy is the most ac-
ceptable option for Israelis,
but does not offer even a
minimal solution to the
Palestinians and could
backfire on Israel if imposed
unilaterally.
• Annexation would prove
highly destructive for Israel.