I INSIGHT
I
Will Israel Play Ball
With The Superpowers?
HELEN DAVIS
Special to The Jewish News
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20
FRIDAY, JANUARY 20, 1989
hen George Bush
enters the White
House this week,
one of his top foreign policy
priorities will be the Middle
East.
Following the dramatic
decision by Washington last
month to open an official
dialogue with the PLO, the
stage has now been set for a
quick breakthrough in the
Middle East peace process —
and a new era in relations be-
tween Washington and Jeru-
salem.
While the American flip-
flop over the PLO was an-
nounced by outgoing Secre-
tary of State George Shultz
and endorsed by outgoing
President Ronald Reagan,
there was little doubt in
Geneva, where Yassir Arafat
uttered the form of words
which Washington had de-
manded, that the prime
mover was President-elect
Bush.
Indeed, Shultz made a point
of emphasizing that the deci-
sion had been taken in con-
sultation with the incoming
president.
Bush is a relatively un-
known quantity in
Jerusalem, and Israeli of-
ficials, who sensed a certain
detachment and lack of rap-
port during his visit to Israel
two years ago, are understan-
dably — and justifiably — jit-
tery about what the next four
years have in store for them.
The new president enters
the White House owing few
political favors to either the
American Jewish community
or to Israel. Moreover, he does
not appear to have any par-
ticularly strong intellectual,
emotional, religious or
ideological attachments to
the Jewish state.
At the same time, the Arab-
Israeli conflict presents an
ideal arena for both establish-
ing his authority and for test-
ing superpower cooperation.
Indeed, much of the ground-
work has, in fact, been laid by
the outgoing administration.
During a succession of shut-
tles in the region last year,
Secretary Shultz devised a
detailed and comprehensive
program for Israeli
disengagement from the oc-
cupied territories, leading to
the creation of a Palestinian
homeland in the occupied ter-
ritories (in confederation with
Jordan) and an Israeli-Jor-
danian peace treaty.
Nor has Moscow been idle,
actively nudging its regional
allies, notably Syria and the
PLO, into a more concillia-
tory, accommodating stance
toward Israel.
Soviet leader Mikhail Gor-
bachev has publicly lectured
both Syrian President Hafez
Assad and PLO Chairman
Arafat on the need to come to
terms with Israel and aban-
don their dreams of destroy-
ing Israel on the battlefield.
Even while pressuring his
allies Gorbachev was taking
some of his own medicine. He
Having delivered
Yassir Arafat to
the negotiating
table, the Soviet
leader is now
looking to the new
American
president to
deliver Yitzhak
Shamir and the
new Israeli
government.
is determined to restore the
Soviet Union to a central role
in Middle East diplomacy and
he quickly came to the con-
clusion that the path to such
ambitions ran through
Jerusalem.
Many of the pieces are now
in place for George Bush, in
partnership with Mikhail
Gorbachev, to embark on a
joint initiative that will pro-
pel the parties to the con-
ference table — perhaps
under superpowers' auspices
rather than the sponsorship
of the five permanent mem-
bers of the UN Security
Council.
Just one piece remains out
of place: Israel.
Having delivered Yassir
Arafat to the negotiating
table; the Soviet leader is now
looking to the new American
president to deliver Yitzhak
Shamir and the Israeli gov-
ernment. That may be easier
said than done.
First, both Shamir and
Shimon Peres, his Labor
coalition partner in Israel's
national unity government,
firmly reject negotiations
with the PLO.
Second, Shamir and his
natural allies — the right-
wing and religious blocs —
are dogmatically opposed to
compromising the integrity of
the biblically promised Land
of Israel, whether for reasons
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