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FRIDAY, MAY 13, 1988
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Do Candidates Grasp
Middle East Realities?
MORRIS J. AMITAY
T
en years ago this
month, as Israel's
friends in Washington
were celebrating Israel's 30th
anniversary, a landmark
Senate vote took place enabl-
ing Saudi Arabia to get the
top of the line U.S. fighter air-
craft, the F-15. Interestingly,
a Harris poll only days before
the vote showed that two-
thirds of the American public
were opposed to the sale. But
this bitterly contested fight
was won by the Carter ad-
ministration after pulling out
all the political stops. Despite
the success of President
Carter in promoting the
peace treaty between Israel
and Egypt six months later,
the F-15 controversy left
legacies worth noting a
decade later.
Many of the key senators
who opposed the sale are still
serving in the Senate and
playing leading roles in U.S.
Middle East policy. Among
them are Democratic
Senators Biden, Cranston,
Kennedy, Metzenb-aum,
Moynihan and Sarbanes. On
the Republican side are
Senators Packwood, Weicker,
Heinz and Dole.
Among the supporters of
this controversial sale to
Saudi Arabia, the most pro-
minent was Abe Ribicoff, a
veteran Jewish senator from
Connecticut at the time who
has since retired. He had
previously been considered a
consistent supporter of pro-
Israel initiatives and legisla-
tion. Whatever his motives
for this, he was generally con-
sidered as being responsible
for swinging enough votes
(the final vote 44-54 on a
disapproval resolution meant
that a switch of seven voters
would have made the dif-
ference) to permit the sale to
go through. A number of
those voting in favor the the
sale admitted afterwards it
was Ribicoff's surprising ad-
vocacy which determined
their vote.
In 10 years there has been
more than a 50 percent tur-
nover in the Senate. There
has also been a change in
voting patterns on this issue
of arms sales to Israel's Arab
foes. Eight years later, the
Reagan administration on a
much less significant sale to
Saudi Arabia just managed to
garner the minimum 34
Senate votes it needed to sus-
tain the President's veto of a
73-22 vote, denying the
Saudi's an arms package.
The reasons for this
dramatic shift in congres-
sional sentiment can be at-
tributed both to growing ir-
ritation over the Saudis' sorry
record in promoting peace in
the region, and the increased
political activism of the
American Jewish community
in presenting its views. Also,
the tremendous military
buildup in Saudi Arabia over
the past decade has led many
to ask when is enough
enough for a nation still in a
state of war with an ally,
Israel.
This is not to deny the U.S.
interest in preventing a
radical takeover of this oil-
rich kingdom — but it shows
that as far as the U.S. Con-
gress is concerned, with some
In a close race,
Jewish voting
behavior could be
decisive.
Saudi requests for the most
sophisticated U.S. weapons, it
is better to just say no.
Another legacy of that bit-
terly fought arms sale 10
years ago was the disenchant-
ment of many American Jews
with President Jimmy Carter.
This was reflected 2Y2 years
later at the polls when Jewish
voters gave nearly as much
support to the challenger,
Republican Ronald Reagan,
as to the incumbent
Democrat Carter. This split
was unprecedented, given the
voting behavior of American
Jews in favor of Democratic
candidates since the days of
Franklin Roosevelt. It
demonstrated very clearly
that support for Israel was an
important election issue to
the American Jewish
community.
While Reagan won handily
in 1980, in a closer presiden-
tial race, Jewish voting
behavior could be decisive in
states such as New York,
California and Florida, with
significant numbers of Jewish
voters and large blocs of elec-
toral votes. As Campaign '88
unfolds; it will be interesting
to see how the candidates of
both parties react to this
political reality.
More important, however, is
how both understand the
realities of the Middle East.
For after elections are over,
campaign promises can rare-
ly be redeemed and are easi-
ly forgotten. But for now the
campaign rhetoric and state-
ment might give some indica-
tion of what is to come.