I ANALYSIS I

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18

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1988

Palestinians

Continued from Page 1

blocs — an independent
Palestinian state wedged bet-
ween Israel and Jordan is
regarded as a totally unaccep-
table security threat, a laun-
ching pad for the eventual
destruction of Israel itself.
"Rightly or wrongly," says
Dr. Clinton Bailey, a
specialist in Palestinian na-
tionalism at Tel Aviv Univer-
sity, "Israelis distrust the
PLO. Preventing its accession
to power 'next door' is con-
sidered to be a matter of life
and death.
"Even if it leads to the
brutalization of Israeli socie-
ty, the alienation of Israel on
the international scene and to
a significant drop in the
standard of living, average
Israelis would prefer con-
tinued occupation to the
establishment of a PLO state
in the occupied territories?'
The narrow limits of Israel's
political consensus do
not leave Palestinian negoti-
ators much room to maneu-
ver, but they have the oppor-
tunity to achieve more than
they have today. They could,
for example, realistically ex-
pect to rid themselves of what
they describe as the "hated
Zionist occupation."
Some form of interim, con-
fidence-building autonomy in
the territories, leading to a
large measure of Palestinian
self-government in confedera-
tion with Jordan, is probably
the maximum that any
Israeli government would
offer.
Indeed, it was substantial-
ly this formula that was pro-
posed by Assistant Secretary
of State Richard Murphy dur-
ing his lightning swing
through the region last week,
and it will be this same for-
mula that Secretary of State
George Shultz will pursue
when he himself visits Israel
next week.
The latest United States in-
itiative will provide a strin- •
gent test of Palestinian real-
ism, for the success of the in-
itiative — particularly in
Egypt and Jordan — will de-
pend largely on Palestinian
reactions.
Not since 1967 has Israel
been so amenable to a polit-
ical settlement; the question
now is whether the Palestin-
ians will be able to make the
major, fundamental conces-
sions that are necessary to
achieve a settlement, however
imperfect.
"The Palestinians have
always insisted on having
everything and they have
ended up with nothing," says
Dr. Dan Shueftan, a Middle
East specialist at the Hebrew
University of Jerusalem.
"If they had accepted the
Camp David autonomy plan

six years ago, they might have
been well on the way to hav-
ing their own state today.
They missed that opportuni-
ty as they have missed others,
and now we are all paying the
price."
For many liberal Israelis,
there is a single overriding
consideration in making any
major territorial concession —
they must be assured they
will be able to live in reason-
able security with their Pal-
estinian neighbors.
The virtually indispensible
key to this assurance is King
Hussein of Jordan, who re-
gards a large measure of con-
trol over the territories as

"If the Israeli
population is ever
to agree to
transfer the
territory to Arab
sovereignty, it
could only be to
Jordan."

critical to the security of his
own kingdom, which is popu-
lated mostly by Palestinians.
"If the Israeli population is
ever to agree to transfer the
territory to Arab sovereign-
ty," says Dr Bailey, "it could
only be to Jordan, for Jordan
is perceived to have an in-
terest in peace and stability
and has demonstrated its
ability to coexist with Israel:'
Palestinian leaders in the
territories, he says, would be
doing themselves "a great
service" if they got together
and invited King Hussein to
negotiate an end to the oc-
cupation on their behalf,
thereby capitalizing on the
sobering effect that the
disorders are having on
Israel.
Publicly, at least, the
Palestinians in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip still in-
sist that the PLO is their sole
representative and reject any
notion of a future that is tied
to Jordan.
Israel's Foreign Minister,
Shimon Peres, believes
however, that this position
might not be immutable. "All
things being equal," he said
earlier this month, "Arab in-
tellectuals would prefer the
PLO. But if they have to
choose between the PLO,
which will not lead to a solu-
tion, and Jordan, which
might, it is quite possible that
they will prefer Jordan."
In the current atmosphere
of rage, the only prescription
for ending the violence seems
to be more violence, and
Palestinians giving voice to
such heretical ideas are like-
ly to place themselves in

