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38
FRIDAY, JULY 31, 1987
•
The United States is not
responding adequately to the
threat of ballistic missile pro-
liferation, according to Sen.
Dan Quayle (R-IN). And, as
usual, the biggest potential
flashpoint is in the Middle
East, where several countries
are hard at work on missile
systems —and others may
soon have access to missiles
through the growing
worldwide marketfor advanc-
ed weapons.
India and Pakistan are rac-
ing to develop ballistic
missiles, according to Quayle.
Taiwan, Brazil, and Argen-
tina are likewise getting into
the missile business, with
hopes of entering the
lucrative international
market. Inevitably, some of
the missiles produced by
these countries will find their
way into the Middle East.
Syria already has a signifi-
cant missile arsenal, thanks
to the Soviet Union. Egypt
and Iraq are not far behind.
Libya, with German
assistance, is developing
missiles with an expected
range of more than 200 miles.
According to a missile
technology export control
agreement signed earlier this
year, several nations —
including Canada, France,
Germany, Japan, Italy, Great
Britain, and the United
States — agreed to ban the
export of sensitive missile
technology to Third World na-
tions.
But, Quayle argues, the
agreement has some major
gaps. For one, none of the na-
tions currently rushing to
develop missiles is party to
the pact. Nor is the Soviet
Union or the Peoples Repub-
lic of China, major exporters
of lethal hardware to the
Third World.
And, Quayle says, the
United States has not taken
seriously its commitment to
enforce the agreement. More
than 80 people work fulltime
in the area of nuclear export
controls, and more than 250
on East-West technology ex-
port control, Quayle says —
but the U.S. has only 2
fulltime people working on
limiting the export of tech-
nology that may be used for
these weapons.
The implications for Israel
are obvious. Already, Syria
has Russian-made SS-21
missiles capable of hitting
targets in most parts of Israel.
More ominously, these
missiles could carry chemical
or biological agents as well as
conventional explosives; the
use of chemicals in the Iran-
Iraq conflict has alerted the
world to the fact that these
nightmare weapons may soon
be available to a number of
countries.
Israel, too, has been active
in missile development. Re-
cently, Israeli scientists suc-
cessfully tested an updated
version of the Jericho missile
with a range of 500-900
miles — which gives it the
ability to hit targets through-
out the Middle East, as well
as parts of the Soviet Union.
"We're not talking about a
new issue," an analyst for one
of the Armed Services Com-
mittees said. "But there is no
doubt that the spread of this
technology is accelerating. Of
course it directly threatens
Countries are
circumventing a
western ban on
missile
technology.
Israel, which is especially
vulnerable because of its
small size."
According to Shoshana
Bryen, executive director of
the Jewish Institute for Na-
tional Security Affairs, the
immediate threat to Israel
may not be great, but the
long-term implications are
grave. "If you look at the
countries that are interested
in acquiring this technology,
they are not friends of Israel,"
she said. "When you are talk-
ing about export controls on
ballistic missile technology,
we may not be as bad off as
Sen. Quayle thinks we are.
The first people who are go-
ing to be at risk are Pakistan
or India, depending on which
one develops the technology
first. But the second will be
Israel."
Bryen pointed to another
aspect of the problem. Be-
cause the Arab states no
longer possess the unlimited
sources of revenue they en-,
joyed in the late Seventies
and early Eighties, they may
be more inclined to opt for
military technologies that
provide the greatest killing
power at the lowest cost.
"It is important to re-
member that one of the
reasons the U.S. has nuclear
weapons is that it's cheaper
than tanks and airplanes,"
she said. "The danger to
Israel is that the Arabs may
make the same calculation."
The combination of new
generations of affordable
missiles, chemical and
biological weapons, and the
everpresent threat of third-
world nuclear weapons devel-
opment, can only multiply
the dangers of new conflict in
the Middle East.
After The Hearings,
What?
Now that the Iran-Contra
hearings have ground to their
conclusion, what impact will
the information presented
during the long weeks of
testimony have on America's
Middle East policies? And
how did Israel fare in the
televised extravaganza?
Mostly, Jewish activists
here are breathing a cautious
sigh of relief. "Naturally, we
were preparing for the worst,"
said a worker for a pro-Israel
organization . "There was
always the fear that Israel
would become the scapegoat,
or that information would
turn up that really was
damaging to the relationship.
Instead, Congress took a dif-
ferent spin on it, and zeroed
in on the question of checks
and balances. Israel didn't
fare all that badly."
Most members of the con-
gressional panel — with the
exception of Sen. James A
McClure (R-ID) — seemed to
go out of their way to spare
Israel any unnecessary em-
barrassment. "McClure was
pretty insistent about dragg-
ing Israel into it," said one
Senate staffer who followed
the hearings closely. "But
mostly, they had other fish to
fry:
A few Jewish activists took
a longer view of things.
"We're all relieved in terms of
getting over this potentially
disastrous situation," said
Rabbi David Saperstein of the
Multi-Issue Political Action
Committee (MI-PAC). "But
we have to remember that the
real foundation of American
support for Israel is the belief
of the American people in the
justness of Israel's cause. So
far, the stream of policy errors
in the last few years haven't
seemed to erode this founda-
tion. But we don't know about
the long term. It may be that
this is another manifestation
of the "Teflon" image of
Israel — or it may be that a
little of the Teflon gets erod-
ed each time"
Marc Pearl, Washington
representative of the Amer-
ican Jewish Congress, be-
lieves that the complex
relationship between the