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Could be, says Avner Yaniv, a visiting Israeli pro- fessor of political science cur- rently teaching at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. Yaniv, writing in an editorial in the Washington Post, claims that de facto armistice even now exists between the two neighboring enemies, and, he says, this cold peace is due chiefly to the Lebanon and Iran-Iraq wars. The improved climate be- tween the two nations can be further ameliorated by "ad- roit diplomacy," writes Yaniv, who is author of a re- lated book, Dilemmas of Se- curity: Politics, Strategy and the Israeli experience in Lebanon," to be published in June. These two belligerent neighbors were on the verge of war six months ago, says Yaniv, but have now seem- ingly reversed course, and he lists recent events contribut- ing to "a new Syrian apprai- sal" of itself and Israel: • The "mothballing" by Syria of significant parts of its armored force deployed in the Golan bordering on Is- rael; • Syrian de-activation of several army units, reducing the manpower to reserve duty troops; • Syrian President Hafez Assad's attendance in Feb- ruary at a summit conference with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, in Kuwait, the first time since 1977 that the chiefs of the two coun- tries have met since the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's visit to Jerusalem; Syrian control of Beirut, restoring order to anarchy and simultaneously "battling two enemies of Israel," Yasir Arafat's PLO and • the Iranian-backed Hizbullah. Yaniv claims that the Sy- rian maneuvers were not ac- cidental, but an illustration of the intersection of Syrian and Israeli goals. Within the context of Syria's "strategic equilib- rium," writes Yaniv, Assad also sought control of Leba- non, the PLO and Jordan, all included under the umbrella of "a Syrian sphere of essen- tial security." But Syria "never bargained with Iraq's total collapse," writes Yaniv. With an Iraqi collapse would ensue confron- tation by militant Shiites on two fronts, he claims, Leba- non and Iraq, fueled by militant Shiites within Syria led by the Moslem Brother- hood. Assad's attendance at the. President Assad: Shifting alliances. Kuwait summit in February, writes Yaniv, "issued a dou- ble signal: qualified encouragement to the Arabs and a threat to the Iranians." This strategy is being played out in Lebanon, says Yaniv, where Syrian troops have been exercising hegemony of late. Syrian re- scue in February of endangered Amal troops ac- tivated the dampener on Hiz- bullah antagonists, he writes. This intervention caused Assad to seek concomitant reduction in tension with Is- rael, eliminating any possi- bility of a confrontation on two fronts, Israel and his own rivals in the Islamic camp. Although overt Syrian- Israeli ties are not probable, writes Yaniv, reduction of war risk is very much a de- sirable and plausible goal. Therefore, according to Yaniv, Israel can do four things: • Risk signing a formal non- agreement of belligerency with Syria; • Seek new strategic open- ings, in south Lebanon — where it can let Amal know it would phase out the Israeli security zone and the Israel- backed South Lebanon Army, leaving security in that region to the Shiites; • Continue to seek talks with Jordan within a "nomi- nal framework" of an inter- national peace conference while avoiding the impres- sion of seeking to bypass Syria; In the Golan, be willing to stabilize the situation through withdrawal coupled with extensive demilitariza- tions, early warning systems and multinational forces that would assure participation by the superpowers if things go awry. Copyright 1987, JTA