THE SOVIET JEWRY DEAL HELEN DAVIS Special to The Jewish News THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING The good news: 12,000 Jews may be allowed to leave the USSR for Israel in the coming year as part of a deal with the West. The bad news: many would prefer to come to America; Israel seems ill-prepared to absorb them; and Soviet Jewish activists feel the deal is a sell-out. 46. Friday, May 8, 1987 THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS erusalem — The Russians are com- ing. Not the 400,000 that Anatoly Sharansky says would come tomor- row; not even one-tenth of that number. But enough — 12,000 — to quicken the collective Israeli pulse. At least that's the figure reportedly agreed upon by Soviet authorities, though no one has confirmed those figures in Jerusalem or Moscow. After the heady rush of the '70s, when an estimated 160,000 Jews were permitted to leave the Soviet Union, Israelis looked on in helpless dismay as the gates slammed shut once again and the numbers dropped to a trickle. Does the latest reported agreement sig- nify that the gates are about to open once again? Probably not, say Israeli analysts. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev is likely to see this as a one-time deal, and when the last of the 12,000 leaves Moscow next April, they believe, the gusher will be capped. "As far as I can tell," says Dr. Galia Golan, a specialist on. Soviet affairs at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, "Gor- bachev has no intention of going back to the free emigration that the Soviets per- mitted in the '70s, mainly because they did not get what they had been promised:' Instead of the anticipated political and diplomatic bonanza, the Soviets ran into a wall of trade and credit limitations, she says. "They're not willing to make that mistake a second time. It's going to be very much of a gamble all along the line." On balance, the analysts believe that the 12,000 are more likely to be the end of the process of mass emigration rather than the beginning of a new wave. Unless, that is, the — meaning the United States — can make Moscow an offer it cannot refuse. Gorbachev's depth of commitment to his policy of "glasnost" (openness) — at least as far as foreign affairs and Soviet Jewry are concerned — receives a serious test this week when Secretary of State George Shultz meets in Moscow with Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardanze. According to Israeli sources, Shultz is carrying a dazzling display of goodies for the Soviets, including the promise of access to United States high-tech development. If the Soviet leaders do indeed go ahead with the reported deal on Soviet Jewry, say Israel's Kremlinologists, they will be moti- vated by two primary causes. Neither is connected with a newly dis- j covered love of Zion or with a belated sense of commitment to the Helsinki Accords on human rights, but rather with pressing political and economic factors affecting the vital interests of the Soviet Union. In the economic sphere, there is an urgent need to breathe life into the stag- nant Soviet economy if it is to maintain even its present minimal standards of achievement, let alone catch up with developments in the United States. lb achieve this goal — or to go at least some way towards reaching it — Gorba- chev will be keeping a close eye on Con- gress for signs of movement to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and the Stev- enson Amendment, which would open the way to most- favoured-nation trading status and economic credits for the Soviet Union. Gorbachev must also be banking on a political windfall as a result of the deal on Soviet Jews. Since breaking off diplomatic relations with Israel after the 1967 Six Day War and the subsequent expulsion of Soviet mili- tary advisers from Egypt — the most populous, most powerful, most important Arab state — Moscow has been left to play out its role in Middle East affairs on the lunatic fringes. Its principal allies and champions in the region now are Syria. and Libya, whose adventures in the world of international terrorism have brought down one embar- rassment after another on Moscow's head. Faced with the choice of having to fish or cut bait, the Soviets have obviously decided to go fishing. The trauma of such alliances might have been bearable while oil prices — and Soviet arms purchases — remained high. But Libya is today bristling with more weaponry than it will ever be able to use and the Syrians are flat broke. The Soviets now find themselves uncom- fortably allied to states which, incapable of making war and unable to make peace, have led them into a diplomatic and eco- nomic wilderness. Faced with the choice of having to fish or cut bait, the Soviets have obviously decided to go fishing. And the expedition appears destined to produce a handsome catch.