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HILDA RASKIN
522-2020

• Israel Predicts Drop
In Jewish Majority

Tel Aviv-Israel's popula-
tion in the year 2010 will be 44
percent greater than in 1985,
\- but the ratio of Jews to non-
/-
Jews will have declined by
more than six percent, accord-
ing to a demographic analysis
just published by the Central
Bureau of Statistics.
The study, based on proj-
\_ ections of current trends in
births and deaths, fertility
rates among various popula-
tion groups, immigration and
emigration, yielded three
forecasts-"high," "low" and
"intermediate."
Israel's population totalled
- 4.27 million at the end of 1985,
of which Jews numbered 3.52
million, or 82.5 percent. Ac-
cording to the bureau, the total
population will be 5.4 million
in the year 2000, including 4.2
million Jews, who will then
constitute 78.5 percent. By
/_ 2010, however, Jews will
number 4.7 million out of a
total population of 6,16 mil-
lion, and their majority will be
reduced to 76.3 percent.
These data, the bureau says,
are its "intermediate" forecast,
which project a reduction in
the fertility rate among Jewish
women from 2.8 children in
1985 to 2.4 children in 2010.
The fertility rate among Mos-
lems and Druze also will de-
cline, from five children in
1985 to three children in 2010.
The bureau assumes the fertil-
ity rate among Christian
women throughout the 25 year
period will remain constant at
2.2 children.
The forecast also assumes
that the mortality rate will
continue to decline for all ages,
' and that the expected number
of immigrants, about 10,000
annually, will equal the "net"
number of citizens living
abroad for prolonged periods.
According to these assump-
tions, the increase among Jews
) in theperiod 1985-2010 is ex-
pected to be 34 percent, an av-
erage of about 1.2 percent a
year. But the increase among
non-Jews is projected at 95
percent, about 2.7 percent per
year.
There is a substantial gap
between the bureau's "low"
and "high" projections of popu-
• lation increase. If the former is
correct, the population will
total 5.2 million in 2000 and
5.75 million in 2010. The
"high" projection estimates a
population of 5.55 million and
2 6.55 million, respectfully.
•
The "high" forecast assumes
that the Jewish fertility rate in
1985 will remain constant at
2.8 children and will decrease
among Moslem and Druze
women to 3.5 children. It also
; assumes that there will be
5,000 more immigrants than
• emigrants per year.

The "low" forecast assumes
that the Jewish fertility rate
will decrease to 2.1 children by
2010 against a decrease to 2.5
children among Moslem and
Druze women. It also assumes
a negative immigration of
5,000 persons a year. Expected
changes in the mortality rate
are identical for all three fore-
casts.
The bureau said that in all of
its forecasts, the percentage of
children under 15 is expected
to drop; the percentage in the
45-65 age groups is expected to
grow; and the population 65
years of age and over will re-
main stable.
The "intermediate" forecast
assumed a 12 percent increase
in the number of children by
2000 and an eight percent in-
crease over the following 10
years. This means there will be
1.5 million children in 2000
and 1.7 million in 2010, com-
pared to 1.3 million in 1985.
This increase is smaller than
the general population growth.
Therefore, the number of chil-
dren in the population will de-
cline from 32.5 percent in 1985
to 29 percent in 2000 and 27.5
percent in 2010, the bureau
said.
The elderly population is ex-
pected to stand at 8.5 percent of
the total, although the overall
number of elderly will increase
from 375,000 in 1985 to
465,000 in 2000 and 500,000 in
2010. The percentage of per-
sons over 75 will increase from
39 percent in 1985 to 43 per-
cent of the elderly population
in 2000.
The number of persons in the
overall population between the
ages of 15-64 will increase from
59 percent in 1985 to 62 per-
cent in 2000 and 64 percent in
2010. But because the percent-
age of children will decrease
and the percentage of elderly
remain stable, the "depen-
dency ratio" - The relation-
ship between the working
population and the"supported"
population - will decrease.
That relationship stood at 708
per 1,000 in 1985. It will stand
at 602 per thousand in 2000
and 55 per thousand in 2010,
the bureau predicted.

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