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Soviet regime has allowed
some 265,000 Jews to leave, he
says, suggests a "close correla-
tion between the years of
Soviet-American detente and
the year of high Jewish emig-
ration from the Soviet Union."
He points out that "the Soviets
have allowed high levels of
Jewish emigration in periods
when they felt they had a rea-
sonable chance of getting
either arms control, trade
agreements or both with the
United States. When those
hopes evaporated (after 1979),
so did the flow of Jews out of
the Soviet Union."
The history of the past 15
years suggests, Cullen notes,
that the Soviets will respond to
"two carrots" — trade and
arms control. Arms control pol-
icy, he points out, cannot be de-
termined on the basis of what
is good for Soviet Jews, "but
trade is another matter. The
trick is to devise a set of trade
incentives — to be extended
one at a time depending on
Soviet behavior — that serves
both American interests and
those of Soviet Jews."
This involves a phased re-
moval of the trade barriers be-
tween the United States and
the Soviet Union with Wash-
ington privately explaining to
the Soviets that continuation
of the process and removal of
the more substantial barriers \
would depend on their re-
sponse.
"The goal," Cullen states,
"should be a controlled, steady
flow of perhaps 20,000 emigres
per year until the people who
want to leave have done so. If
the Soviets respond by allow-
ing emigration at about that
level, the process of removing
trade barriers could continue.
If not, it could be stopped and
rolled back."
The first steps, he says,
should be repeal of the Steven-
son Amendment and the dele-
tion from the Jackson-Vanik
Amendment of the clause re-
quiring the president to "re-
ceive assurances" from the
Soviets on emigration. Dele-
tion of the clause, he asserts,
would leave the amendment in
force but free the president to
respond to what really mat-
ters: the number of people
allowed to emigrate.
If the Soviets respond by in-
creasing the emigration rate,
Cullen says the next step
should be presidential waiver
of the Jackson-Vanik Amend-
ment, giving the Soviets most-
favored-nation status. This
would be largely symbolic, he
says, since 152 other nations
have MFN status. The Soviets
would also become eligible for
Export-Import Bank credits.
Even with the waiver of
Jackson-Vanik, Cullen as-
serts, the more substantial
trade barriers would remain in
place, "giving the Soviets
ample incentive not to
backslide on emigration pol-
icy." He suggests further steps
to be taken if the Soviets con-
tinued to perform satisfactor-
ily.
.165
SV‘
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