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ANALYSIS
Syrian. Build Up Calls
For New Scenario
MORRIS J. AMITAY
Special to The Jewish News
T
he Reykjavik summit
and its aftermath fo-
cused world-wide at-
tention on the difficulties of
curbing the nuclear arsenals
of the two superpowers. In
recent weeks, however, re-
ports of Israel's nuclear capa-
bility have provided grist for
various journalistic mills and
generating speculation
among Middle East watchers.
The Sunday Times of London
originally brought this sub-
ject to public attention with
its front page story, including
a photo identified as "the
nerve center of the bomb fac-
tory." The newspaper account
attributed no fewer than one
hundred nuclear weapons to
Israel. Similar stories lacking
the details of Israel's pur-
ported nuclear capability
have surfaced for more than
a decade now, with CIA
sources having estimated
that Israel possessed some six
to ten devices at the time of
the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Coincidentally, the latest
revelation came shortly be-
fore Syria had been conclu-
sively identified by the
British government as having
directed the aborted plot to
destroy an El Al airliner and
only a short time after re-
ports of a continuing military
build-up by Syria aimed at
Israel. The link between
these three developments has
not been adequately ap-
preciated. Until now, Israel's
ability to deter Arab aggres-
sion has been discussed in
terms of a conventional re-
sponse to be fought with the
usual mix of tanks, planes
and infantry. For Israel, this
meant containing initial at-
tacks with a small regular
army and then, following full
mobilization within 48-72
hours, moving swiftly to de-
stroy attacking formations on
Arab territory — a so-called
"counterforce" strategy.
However, with the growth
of sophisticated Syrian air de-
fenses, significant increases
in the number of tanks and
artillery, and, most recently,
the acquisition of accurate
Soviet surface to surface mis-
siles, Israel's ability to deter
has been weakened. These
changes in the military bal-
ance along with the extensive
defense line now in place on
the routes to Damascus,
would make an Israeli coun-
teroffensive a much more
costly and lengthy operation.
Given these new circum-
stances, a quick grab by
Syria of all or part of the
Golan Heights followed by
Soviet pressure for an im-
mediate cease-fire before Is-
rael could regain captured
territory is an increasing pos-
sibility.
.
(313) 353-1424
30
Friday, November 14, 1986 THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
Morris J. Amitay is the former
director of AIPAC.
As Israel's conventional de-
terrent strength is called into
question, a new scenario
must be addressed not only
by Syria, but by the United
States and the Soviet Union:
the substitution of a nuclear
deterrent for a conventional
one.
For years now, Israeli lead-
ers have stuck to a standard
response that Israel would
not be the first to introduce
nuclear weapons into the
Middle East. And it has gen-
erally been understood — and
reinforced by events during
the Yom Kippur War — that
Israel would use nuclear
weapons as a last resort to
"prevent Massada from fal-
ling again," or, in more mod-
Under certain
conditions Israel
might be tempted
to use nuclear
weapons to defeat
a Syrian attack.
ern terms, from having its
population center overrun.
At present, it would cer-
tainly be prudent for Syria to
consider as it moves toward
strategic parity with Israel,
that under certain circum-
stances Israel might be temp-
ted to use small-yield tactical
nuclear weapons to defeat a
Syrian attack instead of ex-
pending lives to do so. The
lack of a similar. Syrian nu-
clear capability adds credibil-
ity to this scenario.
So while it is still useful
for analysts to count the
number of men, aircraft,
tanks and artillery available
to both sides, it would also be
timely for all nations with a
stake in a future Syrian-
Israeli conflict to ponder how
best to prevent any Syrian
miscalculation which could
have incalculable conse-
quences.
Correction
Purely Commentary Nov. 7
listed an incorrect address for
information about the third
printing of Baruch Litvin's
The Sanctity of the
Synagogue. The correct ad-
dress 'is: Baruch Lavin Foun-
dation, 449 N. Laurel Ave.,
Los Angeles, CA 90048.
Early Deadline
The deadline for submis-
sion of editorial material for
the December 5 edition of
The Jewish News will be
Wednesday, November 26 at
noon.