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20
Friday, July 11, 1986
BEW ER-LEWISTON-SMITH
MAI TY x *Ix KWH /N
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
ANALYSIS
Call For An Appointment
INTERIOR DESIGN
• 2 and
f
Mubarak
Continued from Page 1
feet, Jabber predicts in the
summer issue of Foreign Affairs,
the council's authoritative jour-
nal on foreign affairs. It would
severely • test the special
Egyptian-American relationship
that has existed over the past
decade.
"Without careful and atten-
tive management by both Con-
gress and the Administration,"
he asserts, "this relationship
could be entirely swept away,
destroying in the process, a
keystone of U.S. policy in the
Middle East. Given the cen-
trality of Egypt to the politics of
the region," he points out, "the
consequences would seriously
damage U.S. interests in the
Arab-Israeli arena, North Africa
and the Persian Gulf."
Egypt's crisis has been long in
the making and has been com-
pounded over the last 20 years
by heavy military spending and
runaway population growth. It
has been deferred • by sharp in-
creases in foreign exchange
revenues from 1975 to 1984,
U.S. aid, remittances from ex-
patriate workers, capital inflows
from oil-rich Arab neighbors,
Egypt's own oil exports and
tourism.
But the collapse of the world
oil market hit Egypt hard as did
the sharp reduction in - tourism
because of Arab terrorist activi-
ties. As a result, Egypt's foreign
exchange revenue was expected
to drop from 49.6 billion in 1985
to $6.6 billion in 1986. The
limited economic reforms insti-
tuted by the Mubarak regime to
reduce the budget deficit and
cut the export-import gap pro-
ved "woefully inadequate," Jab-
ber says.
"As the economic crisis forces
the government to institute
tougher belt-tightening meas
ures," he warns, "the stage is
set for a social and political
eruption of a magnitude to
threaten the regime. This, in
turn, will severely strain the
special relationship with the
United States.
"In the minds of Egyptians,"
says Jabber, "their socio-
economic crisis is inescapably
bound up with the question of
peace with Israel and the tight
U.S. embrace. The late
President Anwar al-Sadat had
sold his Open Door and Camp
David policies to the public as
avenues to a new era of prosper-
ity and development. In return
for peace with Israel, Egypt
would also recover all its na-
tional territory and the Palesti-
nians would gain their au-
tonomy in the occupied ter-
ritories.
"Yet," he stresses, "years after
the flag of the Star of David was
hoisted in Cairo, Egyptians are
galled that a portion of land
they consider to be theirs — the
beachfront sliver of Taba — re-
mains under Israeli control, that
more Arab land has been an-
nexed by Israel (in East
Jerusalem and the Golan
Heights), that Lebanon was in-
vaded and that Egypt remains
ostracized by most of the Arab
world. Never broadly popular in
Egypt, the separate peace has
now come to be regarded as a
national humiliation."
In the present tense situation
in Egypt, Jabber asserts, any
serious program of economic re-
trenchment, although absolutely
necessary and long overdue,
"will be interpreted as final
proof of the failure of the Sadat
policies. The hardships of au-
sterity are certain to generate
strong pressures for a reorienta-
tion away from the United
States and Israel."
Egypt's current crisis had its
root in the Nasser era (for
which, Jabber notes, there is
currently "a widespread sense of
nostalgia") when the military
build-up consumed almost a
For Egyptians, the
crisis is bound up
with peace with
Israel and the tight
U.S. embrace.
third of Egypt's gross national
product. By the time Sadat con-
solidated power in 1971, the
Egyptian economy was at the
breaking point. With the 1973
war and for the following three
years, Egypt received nearly $6
billion from the Arab states,
$1.6 billion from the U.S. and
another $1.1 billion from inter-
national funds and other indus-
trialized nations, plus about $1
billion a year in secret military
assistance from the oil-
producing states.
But while Infitah, or Sadat's
Open door policy attracted these
huge sums, Cairo failed to put
them to productive use; only a
small proportion went into in-
vestment in industry, agricul-
ture and infrastructural de-
velopment, so that by the late
1970s, the positive impact of the
Sadat policies had been dissi-
pated. "Most damaging," says
Jabber, "was Egypt's isolation
from the rest of the Arab world
as the unilateral approach to Is-
rael took hold. Whatever public
acquiescence in this bold move
existed was due to high expecta-
tions of the economic benefits
that peace would bring, expecta-
tions that Sadat persistently
encouraged.
"As these hopes faded, criti-
cism mounted from Egyptian Is-
lamic fundamentalists, the left,
the Nasserists, and even from
prominent politicians and
opinion-makers within the rul-
ing establishment. The harsh
political repression that followed
set the stage for Sadat's assassi-
nation by a group of religious
extremists in October 1981."
On assuming office, President
Mubarak reduced normalization
of relations with Israel to the
minimum consistent with the
letter of the peace agreement,
sought to mend relations with
the Arab states and the Pales-
tine Liberation Organization,
loosened somewhat the ties with
the United States and reestab-