34
Friday, June 6, 1986
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INC
The Covenant Of
All The Generations
BY CARL SAGAN
Special to The Jewish News
Does the human race have
"tenure" as a species on this
planet? Let us look at the his-
tory of the dinosaurs. What de-
stroyed them? Probably a large
object out of space about ten
kilometers across, which carved
a hole in the ocean bottom;
created a tsunami, a tidal wave,
a "flood," of unprecedented
scale; and sprayed particles of
smoke and dust high up into the
atmosphere. These particles
blocked the sun, darkening and
cooling the earth, and wiping
out the dinosaurs who were un-
prepared for sudden chills.
It's stretching things a little
to say that the "flood" killed the
dinosaurs, but still, this is suffi-
ciently close to Genesis, chapter
6 through 9, that we can try to
seek some further wisdom from
the Abu' of Noah.
In Genesis 6-9, after Noah
twists God's arm a little bit,
God promises Noah that there
will be no more floods. But God
reserves his options of other
forms of planetary catastrophe.
Such catastrophes are now
within our own hands to make.
Indeed, there is a midrashic
tradition of a different sort of
flood, a Flood of Fire, mabul esh:
We ourselves have the capabili-
ty to cause such a Flood of Fire
- unprecedented devastation,
worldwide, through our own ac-
tions; unprecedented at least
during the tenure of the human
species on earth.
We have, almost without not-
icing it, accumulated, since
1945, 60,000 nuclear weapons,
almost all of which are more
powerful than the bombs that
destroyed Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. Think of it! Sixty
thousand nuclear weapons! Of
them something approaching
25,000 are what are called
strategic nuclear weapons,
meaning they are intended to
destroy the homeland of the
potential adversary.
How many cities are there on
the planet Earth? If we define a
city as having 100,000 people or
more, there are 2300 cities on
earth. That means that the
United States and the Soviet
Union could completely wipe out
every city on earth and have
20,000 strategic weapons left
over with the targeteers wonder-
ing what to do with them.
What if we did much less than
this - burned only between a
dozen and a hundred cities - by
no means a "large" nuclear war,
Dr. Carl Sagan, of Cornell Universi-
ty, is a world renowned astronomer
and science writer. He recently re-
ceived an award from the Shalom
Center, a national center for Jewish
perspectives on preventing nuclear
holocaust, for his work on "nuclear
winter"
considering how huge the arsen-
als are? From the burning cities
and from forest wildfires also,
the dust and smoke from air
bursts and ground bursts would
produce a thick cloud of dark,
fine particles that would stay up
in the atmosphere, block out the
sun, cool and darken the earth,
in a kind of parallel to what we
think happened 65 million years
ago at the end of the Cretaceous
period of geological time.
Our calculations indicate that
the temperatures would drop be-
low freezing for very long per-
iods of time - not just 40 days
and 40 nights, but in some of the
calculations for years. The light
levels would go down to some-
thing like one percent of ambient
average over the northern mid-
latitude target zone.
So that is a way of saying that
nuclear war posits a fundament-
al threat to all of us. Nations
that might have contemplated
sitting this war out find that
they can be utterly destroyed
without a single nuclear weapon
falling in their territory, without
any hostilities happening in
their vicinity. Indonesia, say, or
Nigeria, or Brazil, could be utter-
ly wiped out by the destruction
of agriculture, the cold, the dark,
the disease, the radiation sick-
ness, without any hostilities on
their territories.
So suddenly we find that we're
all in this together. Suddenly it's
not just the United States and
the Soviet Union and Britain,
France and China, to mention
the five nuclear powers that have
the ability to generate nuclear
winter, but everybody. This is
why just a year ago, the Secre-
tary-General of the United Na-
tions asked, - "By what right do
the United States and the Soviet
Union decide the fate of the
human species?" A good ques-
tion, one well worth contem-
plating.
Why do we have 60,000 nuc-
lear weapons in the world? It's
madness.
Our calculation says that nuc-
lear winter starts when you burn
a dozen downtowns, so the threat
of destruction of say ten major
cities in the United States is pro-
bably sufficient to deter us from
doing absolutely mad things,
and likewise on the Soviet side.
So you can imagine a level of the
world's arsenals sufficiently
high that a sequestered retal-
iatory force would be perfectly
adequate to guarantee deter-
rence, and at the same time be
sufficiently low that no con-
catenation of circumstances
could lead to the Flood of Fire.
Can we get from here to there?
The present situation is a very
critical one. It is a great oppor-
tunity, and a great disaster if we
don't take the opportunity. The
.