;
THE DETROIT JEillSH• NEWS
Friday, December 6, 1985
75
SHABOT
SHALOM
the Arab world. And although
the treaty remains in place,
Mubarak has kept his distance
from the Jewish state, making
no efforts to fulfill Israeli expec-
tations of peace — full diploma-
tic, economic and cultural ties
between the two countries.
In 1982, he recalled his am-
bassador from Tel Aviv in pro-
test at Israel's invasion of Leba-
non. The ambassador still has
not been returned. Moreover,
the Egyptian leader has resisted
entreaties to visit Israel or to
meet with the Israeli Prime
Minister Shimon Peres until
there is a resolution of the bor-
der dispute over Taba, a one-
square mile beach on the Red
Sea which Israel occupies and
which Cairo claims is "holy
Egyptian soil."
Mubarak's insistence on re-
gaining Taba is not so much
motivated by an urgent need to
recover an insignificant piece of
real estate at the northern tip of
the Sinai Desert as it is an at-
tempt to placate his leftist and
fundamentalist critics who re-
gard even a "cold peace" with
Israel as too much to stomach
and who are using Taba as a
stick with which to beat the
Egyptian leader.
And now, with relations be-
tween Egypt and Israel in deep
freeze following the Achille
Lauro affair and the killing last
month of seven Israeli
holiday-makers on the Red Sea
coast by a Koran-chanting
Egyptian policeman, there
seems little likelihood of an
early settlement to the Taba
dispute.
For all that, though, Mubarak
is unlikely to disturb the sub-
stance of the treaty, which is
the key to continued American
largesse. In essence, he is
caught between a rock and a
hard place: if he maintains the
treaty he will be courting inter-
nal dangers, but tearing it up
will open him to even greater
perils.
Militarily and economically,
Egypt is in no shape to return to
its former state of belligerency
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with Israel. And the Egyptian
masses — struggling with fal-
ling living standards amid a
population explosion that is add-
ing one million souls per year to
the current population of 48 mil-
lion — are in no mood to go to
war again.Mubarak, now
painted into a very tight corner,
must be looking for a graceful
way out. While President
Ronald Reagan has declined to
satisfy the Egyptian leader's
demand for an abject public
apology for the interception,
Washington will nevertheless be
ready to go to great lengths to
help out a valued ally who has
fallen headlong into a humiliat-
ing quagmire.
But it will be some time be-
fore relations between patron
and client regain their former
robust health.
In fact, though, the key to
President Mubarak's survival
lies neither in Washington nor
in Jerusalem; rather, it lies in
the Arab world. And this
month's summit in Riyadh is
likely to be his moment of truth.
So far, only King Hussein of
Jordan has defied the Arab con-
sensus and restored diplomatic
ties with Cairo. Other Western-
leaning Arab leaders would like
to follow his lead and help
Egypt return to the fold, thereby
strengthening the position of the
moderates within the Arab
world. But their voices will be
drowned out if, as seems likely,
charges of collusion with the
United States continue to haunt
Mubarak in Riyadh.
A fresh rejection of Egypt,
coming on top of the Achille
Lauro fiasco, will be a serious
blow to the Egyptian leader,
strengthening his domestic op-
ponents and emboldening those
who dream of remaking Egypt
in the image of fundamentalist
Iran or radical Libya.
"President Mubarak," ob-
served one senior Middle East
analyst in Israel, "is not the
wisest of men." Given his pre-
sent precarious predicament, a
lack of political wisdom could
prove fatal.
LOCAL NEWS
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