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3 - v 11:1
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

30 Friday, July 26, 1985

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BY VICTOR M. BIENSTOCK

Special to The Jewish News

There are "compelling reasons"
to believe that the time is not ripe
for a forceful and highly visible
United States initiative towards
Arab-Israeli peace, says a leading
Amercan authority on the Middle
East. He declares, however, that
contact with the Palestine Libera-
tion Organization is "the key to
the door" to peace and that the
United States must "come to grips
with the PLO problem" while
encouraging existing diplomatic
moves.
riting in Foreign Policy, the
authoritative quarterly on inter-
national affairs published by the
Carnegie Endowment for Inter-
national Peace, Robert G.
Neumann, former U.S. Ambas-
sador to Saudi Arabia, warns that
inaction will heighten two grave
dangers. First, that the Palesti-
nian problem will touch off an
explosion of fundamentalist
fanaticism that could destroy
every government in the region.
Secondly, that Syria's determina-
tion to achieve military equality
with Israel could lead to war
which could quickly escalate to
superpower confrontation.
Neumann, currently director of
Middle East programs at the
Georgetown Center for Strategic
and International Studies, ex-
presses doubts about the degree of
commitment of Yassir Arafat,
leader of the Palestine Liberation
Oraganization, to acceptance of
Security Council resolutions on
Israel's right to live behind secure -
and recognized borders.
"As late as February '7,"
Neumann declares, "as Hussein
told me during a recent meeting,
he and Arafat were still far
apart."
"Nobody can push me to say
what he wants me to say, only my
people," Arafat told the Wall
Street Journal which had asked
him for confirmation of Hussein's
statement of his position.
He insisted he would not speci-
fically endorse the two key Secu-
rity Council resolutions — 242
and 338 — unless the United
States first agreed to self-
determination for the Palesti-
nians. "Self-determination" is the
PLO code word for an independent
Palestinian Arab state west of
Jordan.
Neumann, regarded as a strong
supporter of the Arab cause and a
severe critic of Israel, believes

that American success in Middle
East diplomacy requires official
consensus on three propositions.
First, recognition that the Pales-
tinian problem remains the single
greatest, though not the only obs-
tacle topeace and stability in the
Middle East; second, recognition
that the Camp David peace proc-
ess "has run its course and is now
all but dead," and, third, that U,8,
officials must understand that Is-
rael's continued existence and se-
curity are now accepted "albeit
grudgingly" by most of the Arab
states,
Another factor Washington
must consider, the diplomat adds,
is that "the Arab world realizes
that reliance on the Soviet Union
or a calmly/mint of Moscow in
Middle East diplomacy will not

solve its problems."King Hussein,
Neumann says, is, of all the Arab
leaders, under the heaviest pres-
sure to negotiate but he has con-
sistently backed away from
negotiating alone because he
knows that considerable com-
promise will be necessary and
that he cannot bargain away
Palestinian soil.
He is also aware of the Israeli
contention that Jordan is a Pales-
tinian state and that all Palesti-
nians seeking a homeland should
seek it there.
Hussein, consequently, "must
act with the greatest delicacy"
when it comes to the Palesti-

U.S. officials must
understand that
Israel's continued
existence and
security are now
accepted "albeit
grudgingly" by most
of the Arab states.

nians," he says. Despite the bitter
animosity of the past, "Jordan and
the PLO are cond6nmed to work
together in a Jordanian-led coali-
tion. Indeed, Jordan is the focus of
all possible diplomacy."
Neumann is wary of the pro-
posal that the negotiations be
held within the framework of an
international conference includ-
ing the Soviet Union, a proposal
he attributes to Arafat who, he
says, trusts no Arab country and
"thinks that he needs Soviet back-
ing."
He believes that the United
States cannot persuade Israel "to
respond positively to any Arab
peace overture short of an offer of
direct negotiation between the
parties concerned." Only such an
offer, he says, would constitute
clear recognition of Israel's exist-
ence.
He says both the United States
and Israel suspect "that the con-
ference framework is designed
precisely not to give that assur-
ance, supporting tilt PLO's con-
tention that recognition of Israel
and direct dealing with it is the
organization's only remaining

card, which can be played only
during the negotiations.
The spectacle of "Shiite fanati-
cism's accomplishing what Arab
nationalism could not accom-
plish' he reports, "Makes all the
rulers in the region uneasy, King
Hussein of Jordan has long pre-
dicted that if the nationalists
were unable to make significant
headway on the Palestinian prob-
lem, the fundamentalists would
be only too ready to take their

"Thus a growing Arab belief in
the urgency of negotiations has
displaced older, vain hopes that
America would tire of supporting
Israel, that it would 'deliver' the
loon s atthe W405111111 W18
that the Israeli problem would
somehow disappear,"

