56
Friday, December 21, 1984 THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
COMMENT
No gain in Mideast
BY VICTOR BIENSTOCK
Special to The Jewish News
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Do King Hussein of Jordan,
President Hosni Mubarak of
Egypt and other Arab "moder-
ates" really mean it when they
eloquently appeal for a Geneva-
type conference with the partici-
pation of the Soviet Union to seek
a settlement of the Arab-Israeli
conflict?
Not really, says Karen Elliott
House, one of the beat-informed
American correspondents on
political developments within the
Arab world, reporting on the re-.
cent flurry of political activity in-
volving Arab leaders which in-
cluded Yassir Arafat's rump ses-
sion of the Palestine National
Council and King Hussein's pub-
lic embrace of Mubarak.
"This new Arab cooperation is
more show than substance and
seems unlikely to accomplish
much," House said. She points out
that as is so often true in the
Middle East, the motion and ma-
neuvering, the posturing and
pronouncements don't fully coin-
cide with reality."
The past four years, according
to Rouse, have brought strikingly
reduced expectations that the
Reagan Administration — after
its abortive 1982 peace initiative
and its failure in Lebanon, will
play a major role in the search for
Middle East peace.
The current outlook, she re-
ported in the Wall Street Journal
after a three-week tour of Jordan,
Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt,
"is for a lot more talk from the
moderates, more terrorism from
the radicals, brighter oppor-
tunities for the Russians and dim
prospects for peace."
For the moment, she notes,
"much of that talk is still tactical.
Arab leaders privately concede
they hope their calls for Soviet
participation in the Middle East
will scare the United States into
opening a major Mideast peace'
drive that would make Soviet par-
ticipation unnecessary.
"Or, at a minimum," she de-
clares, "Jordan's King Hussein
hopes to see Mideast peace on the
agenda of Soviet-American talks
scheduled to begin in January be-
tween U.S. Secretary of State
George Shultz and Soviet Foreign
Minister Andrei Gromyko."
Even the Saudi Arabians, ter-
rified as they are of the growth of
Soviet influence in the Middle
East, are using the Soviet ploy.
The correspondent quotes Saudi
Arabian Foreign Minister Saud
al-Feisal as pointing out that "the
Soviets have influence in the
Middle East so some role for the
Soviets would seem unavoidable."
President Reagan, reportedly,
would like to go down in history as
the man who brought peace to the
Middle East and would undertake
a new initiative if his advisers
saw any prospects, of success. It
has been suggested to the Ad-
ministration that inviting Soviet
cooperation in seeking a Middle
East settlement might be a boost
to the scheduled talks on improv-
ing Soviet-American relations.
Former President Richard Ni-
xon, whose voice is heard respect-
fully in this Administration,
strongly advocates a role for the
Soviet Union in the Middle East
and says that Soviet participation
is necessary if there is to be a solu-
tion.
A blueprint for foreign policy
for the second Reagan Adminis-
tration published as the leading
article in the current issue of
Foreign Affairs, offers no role to
the Soviets in the Middle East.
The journal is published quar-
terly by the Council on Foreign
Relations, which is the hub of the
American foreign policy estab-
lishment.
Henry Grunewald, editor-in-
chief of Time magazine, who was
designated by the editors of
Foreign Affairs to outline the
policies the new Administration
should follow, calls for a firm
stand against the Soviet Union on
issues while seeking the
maximum possible agreement on
arms control.
He warns, however, that "those
who urge a last-ditch stand
against'Soviet influence in every
corner of the globe, a sort of Chur-
chillian resistance sometimes
suggested by the apocalyptic
rightwingers, overestimate both
our will and our resources.
Grunewald is highly critical of
the Administration on the Middle
East, complaining that it has
swung from "overactive and ill-
conceived involvement" (former
Secretary of State Alexander M.
Haig's whirlwind attempt to rally
the area for an anti-Soviet
"strategic consensus"), to "ex-
treme caution bordering on inac-
tivity." The attitude in the second
term, he advises, should be some-
where in between.
American policy in the Middle
East, he says, should build on "one
solid, conceptual piece of work,
the Reagan peace initiative of
September 1982, essentially a dis-
tillation of many earlier com-
prehensive peace plans." He com-
plains that the United States
never followed through on this
plan but says that today, "there
are some new factors in the area
which offer some opportunities."
Among them he cites Israel's new
coalition government with its
more moderate views on the West
Bank.
Grunewald advises that the
Americans encourage the
Egyptian-Jordanian axis and that
it treat Syria "less as a Soviet de-
pendency than as a regional
mini-power with local interests
and fears of its own."
Since the military defeat of the
Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion in Lebanon, some analysts
argue that the Palestinians are no
longer the key to the Middle East
and that the Palestinian problem
can be ignored with impunity,
Grunewald notes, adding that
sympathy and fear of the PLO
among the Arab states have been
greatly overshadowed by a new
concern with Islamic fundamen-
talism.
"Nevertheless," he warns, "the
Palestinian issue cannot be put
aside permanently. The Adminis-
tration should pressure the Israeli
government to improve condi
tions on the West Bank and to
place a freeze on new settle-
ments." Prime Minister Shimon
Peres, he suggests, "may be recep-
tive to this."