22
Friday, May 25, 1984
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
CAPITOL REPORT
WOLF BLITZER
Will Labor Party's crystal ball
change after July 23 election?
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KEEPING THE FAITH
Washington — With the
opposition Labor Party cur-
rently ahead of the ruling
Likud in the Israeli public
opinion polls, U.S. officials
and others are already
exploring the implications
of a new government in
Jerusalem following the
July 23 elections.,
What would a Labor vic-
tory actually mean? Should
we expect dramatic changes
in Israeli policies on such
key issues as the fate of the
West Bank and Gaza, set-
tlements in those territories
and - the status of
Jerusalem? And what about
Israel's continued military
presence in southern Leba-
non?
There are clear
differences
between Labor
and Likud, but
implementing
campaign
promises
following
elections is not
very simple — in
Israel or the U.S.
Trying to predict the
course of a future Labor-led
government in Israel is by
no means simpl e . There are
many variables, including,
most importantly, the
strength of the government.
If Labor should manage to
barely squeak through on
July 23 and thus require the
smaller religious parties as
an essential element in
forming its coalition, there
will be less room for maneu-
verability than if Labor
scores a more decisive vic-
tory.
But assuming that Labor
is in the driver's seat after
the elections and its coali-
tion is relatively steady,
•Shimon Peres, as Prime
Minister, can be expected to
enact some changes in Is-
raeli policy — although
they will not be as revolu-
tionary as Jordan's King
Hussein and other more
moderate Arab leaders and
even many officials in
Washington would like.
There are several things
that a Labor government is
not going to accept, includ-
ing a total withdrawal to
the pre-1967 lines (even
with minor modifications),
the establishment of a
PLO-led state on the West
Bank and the redivision of
Jerusalem. Still, Labor will
indeed be more conciliatory
in its basic approach, as was
underlined by Peres on
Nay 7 during a meeting in
Jerusalem with a visiting
delegation from the World
Jewish Congress.
He noted, for example,
that he would not insist that
the Camp David agree-
ments be the necessary
basis for negotiations be-
tween Israel and Jordan, as
the Likud-led government
does. And he declared that a
Labor government would
stop all Israeli settlements
in densely populated Arab
regions of the West Bank.
He did not say Israel would
halt all settlement activity.
It was under Labor's rule
between 1967 and 1977, in
fact, that Israel initially
began creating settlements
in the strategically impor-
tant Jordan River Valley
and in other West Bank
areas close to the pre-1967
line. It was even during the
Labor years when Kiryat
Arba, outside Hebron, got
off the ground. The Likud-
led coalition governments of
Menachem Begin and Yit-
zhak Shamir have been con-
siderably more assertive in
promoting Jewish settle-
ments in heavily Arab
populated centers — a pol-
icy Peres has promised to
abandon.
According to World
Jewish Congress officials,
Peres said a Labor govern-
ment would offer Hussein
three different options for
peace talks with Israel.
First, negotiations could
begin without prior condi-
tions from any side. Second,
if Hussein required - some
basis for talks, Israel would
not insist that it be the
Camp David accords, which
Jordan has rejected. In-
stead, Peres said he would
be willing to base negotia-
tions on UN Security Coun-
cil Resolutions 242 and 338,
which Jordan has accepted.
The third option would be
to base the negotiations on
President Reagan's Sept. 1,
1982, Arab-Israeli peace
plan while recognizing that
both the Labor Alignment
and Jordan do not necessar-
ily accept every provision
and indeed have different
interpretations of key as-
pects. The Likud govern-
ment has rejected the Re-
agan plan as a basis for
peace talks. Peres said
Palestinians could partici-
pate in the Jordanian dele-
gation provided they recog-
nized Israel and rejected
terrorism.
Regarding Lebanon, he
said Israel would return the
basis of Israeli defense of its
northern border to a flexible
line on the Israeli side
rather than retain Israeli
troops in Lebanon. "It is not
wise to keep our army
abroad where they sit as a
target for hostile forces," he
said.
Thus, there are clear dif-
ferences between Labor and
Likud. But implementing
campaign promises follow-
ing elections is not very
simple — either in Israel or
the United States. A
Likud-led opposition, re-
member, can be expected to
be a formidable force ir
raeli politics. They wily
watching the government's
every move.
Removing Israeli troops
from Lebanon will by no
means be easy, given the
likely prospect of' southern
Lebanon once again becom-
ing the staging ground for
terrorist incursions into Is-
rael. Unfortunately, there
is no real military authority
in Lebanon which can as-
sure security in the south,
and Israel, as a result, may
be stuck in the area for some
time to come irrespective of
a Labor or Likud govern-
ment in Jerusalem.
Hussein, while clearly
anxious for Labor to regain
power, probably is not going
to risk overly upsetting the
Arab rejectionists, espe-
cially his powerful northern
neighbor, Syria by jumping
into peace talks with Israel.
In terms of American-
Israeli relations, there will
be little change if Labor
should win. There is a na-
tional consensus within Is-
rael that close ties with
Washington are essential to
Israel's security. But while
labor may be more con-
ciliatory than the Likud on
peace negotiations, there is
still the likelihood that
Washington and Jerusalem
will find themselves at odds
on key issues in 1985, the
first year of a second-term
Republican or first-term
Democratic Administra-
tion. First years of Adminis-
trations historically have
been difficult ones in U.S.-
Israeli relations — as op-
posed to Presidential elec-
tion years.
All in all, there will be
some important changes in
style and even in substance
if Labor wins, but don't ex-
pect any quick-fix, ovrnight
solutions to break out in the
Arab-Israeli conflict. The
Arab world also will have to
bend, and there are strong
extremist pressures there
pushing in the opposite di-
rection.
Just ask King Hussei -
Every time he or one of
aides even utters some re-
mote hint expressing inter-
est in peace talks with Is-
rael, one of Jordan's ambas-
sadors around the world
gets bumped off— a not-so-
subtle reminder to cool it
with Israel.
Popular paper
Tel Aviv (ZINS) — Yediot
Achronot, with a daily cir-
culation of 1,186,000, is the
most widely newspaper in
Israel.