THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS Friday, January 20, 1984 31 An Arabist's View of U.S. and Israeli Middle East Policies By VICTOR BIENSTOCK MIAMI — The leading ar- ticle in the Winter issue of Foreign Affairs, one of the most influential organs • of the American foreign af- fairs establishment, states flatly that Israel failed to achieve its objectives in its invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the unexpected conse- quences of its failure "have significantly changed the entire range of power rela- tionships in the Middle East." The consquences of the Is- raeli Lebanese adventure, the article states, "have enabled Syria suddenly to emerge from isolation and humiliation and to seize the power switch of Middle Eastern diplomacy. They have diminished and ren- dered uncertain Israel's role in the area. They have brought the Soviet Union back into the Middle East in a position of influence from which it will not be easily dislodged. "They have profoundly af- fected American diplo- macy," this analysis finds, "drawing it away from a broadly-based peace initia- tive and sinking the Marines into a narrow, dangerous position in Lebanon where U.S. forces have already suffered seri- ous casualties. And they have conjured up again the danger of a superpower con- frontation in the area v,rhich neither power desires but which the Soviet Union may be less reluctant to avoid than in the past." For this devastating portrayal of the Middle East situation, the editors of Foreign Affairs, which is published by the elite Council on Foreign Rela- tions, turned to Robert G. Neumann, former Am- bassador to Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Morocco, and currently senior adviser and direc- tor of Middle East studies at the Center for Strategic and Interna- tional . Studies of Georgetown University. Neumann is a most un- usual personality who has had a remarkable career. Born of Jewish parents in Vienna, he left the Jewish community at the age of 14 and was converted to Catholicism at the age of 17. He was a schoolmate of Bruno Kreisky who sub- sequently, as Austrian Chancellor, promoted Yasir Arafat's acceptance by the Socialist International and the European Community. Neumann emigrated to the U.S. in 1939 after two years of internment at Au- schwitz and Dachau, be- came a naturalized citizen and embarked on an aca- demic and diplomatic career. He was one of the small circle of foreign af- fairs advisers to Ronald Re- agan despite his strong anti-Israel posture. He was forced to resign as envoy to Saudi Arabia in 1981 be- cause of his acerbic attacks on Secretary of State Ale- xander Haig and the Ad- ministration which he ac- cused of being too soft on Is- rael. Neumann, who writes with intimate knowledge of the Arab countries and from a close relationship with many of their leaders, ac- cuses Israeli Defense Minis- ter Ariel Sharon, abetted by Prime Minister Menahem Begin, of launching the Lebanese invasion in 1982 as the first step in a grandiose plot "that would bring Israel's power to the borders of Saudi Arabia and radiate its influence as far away as Pakistan and even into Africa." Thus, he asserts, "would Israel become the overwhelming master of the Middle East, the Arab cause would be seen as hopeless and one Arab country after another feel compelled to sue for peace." But all that has come to naught, Neumann claims, and Israel today has "shifted from adventurism to damage control . . . A de- eply divided Israel, still ab-, sorbing the lessons of Leba- non under a less charisma- tic leader than Begin and facing deep economic prob- lems, is in no mood for new adventures unless directly threatened." As Israel pulled in its horns, he says, "America moved increasingly into Is- rael's former role without understanding all its impli- cations. No grand design underlay U.S. involvement in Lebanon. Rather it was the result of miscalcula- tions which were quite different from those of the Israelis." One American error was the three-month delay after the Israeli invasion began before President Reagan laid down the lines of American Middle East pol- icy with a plan epitomizing the "territories for peace" formula and "a clear-cut U.S. position favoring Palestinian self- government in conjunction with Jordan." Then, says Neumann, "a series of wrong predic- tions and wrong moves shifted the entire em- phasis of U.S. policy to Lebanon, leaving the broader peace objectives unimplemented." One of the American mis- calculations, the former envoy asserts, was the ex- pectation that King Hus- sein of Jordan, in agree- ment with Yasir Arafat, "would produce some movement on the broader peace front by declaring his willingness to negotiate with Israel." That was an unrealistic expectation, he says, because Hussein had made it clear all along that he would not negotiate un- less the eventual disposi- tion of the territories was discussed, not merely the transitional autonomy terms. These, Neumann says, were "preconditions certain to be rejected by the Begin government." The Americans misnlcu- lated again when the Lebanese-Israeli with- drawal agreement was reached, Neumann asserts. "It was greeted with consid- erable satisfaction in Wash- ington, yet it bore within it the seeds of its own destruc- tion." Much of Israel's troubles in Lebanon, Neumann charges, were due to the fact that "Menahem Begin and Ariel Sharon, with their total disdain and ignorance of Arab mentality, never understood that it might well have been to their interest to give in to Bashir Gemayel's insistence on putting some distance be- tween himself and them." He repeats the charge that Syria had the tacit consent of Israel" when its forces entered Leba- non in 1976 because Is- rael "coveted the south- ern region of Lebanon for itself." Neumann is not optimis- tic about the future of Leba- non. He sees no prospect of peace there unless there is a "fundamental restructur- ing of political, social and economic power" there that would reduce Maronite domination. It has to be ac- cepted, he points out, that for the foreseeable future, President Hafez al-Assad of Syria will remain the do- minant force in Lebanon and through that, "a place in the Middle East so strong that nothing can be settled there without his consent. "For Lebanon, this cer- tainly means that the Syrian troops will remain not only as long as the Is- raeli forces are there but also as long as the Israeli- Lebanese withdrawal agreement remains in force, as it gives special rights in Lebanon to the Israelis." In the new situation created by a more powerful Syria, Neumann predicts, a new Jordanian initiative in the Palestinian question becomes even more difficult and Hussein consequently "has begun to take steps toward better relations with both Syria and Moscow." Hussein, however, ac- cording to Neumann, is not comfortable in that association and would prefer to return to his earlier initiative "if he were confident of U.S. steadfastness and could count on a forthcoming Palestinian attitude." Neumann has reserva- tions about Assad's ability to remain king of the hill in the Middle East and sees his long-term success as by no means guaranteed. Assad has risen high, he says, but his power base is very nar- row. He sees a number of threats to Assad: from Iraq when that country dis- entangles itself from its exhausting war with Iran; from Egypt when President Hosni Mubarak decides to seek for Egypt the leader- ship of the Arab world it formerly enjoyed by virtue of its size and power; from factions within Lebanon unwilling to continue under Syrian domination. With the many enemies he has, Neumann asserts, Assad has to take only one serious misstep to fall into great difficulties. Mean- while, he is the strong man of the Middle East; every- thing the U.S. does to op -- pose him will strengthen him "albeit at the price of moving even closer to his great protector, the Soviet Union." Assad's position today would make a purely "Jordanian solution" of the Palestinian problem difficult and would necessitate revision of the Reagan Plan. Also to be considered, he says, is a growing realiza- tion by Israel's "volatile public". of the fact that the permanent presence of a large Arab population will bring insoluble problems and is bound to burden se- verely Israel's vital rela- tions with the U.S. He also expects Israel's "impoverished Sephardi element" to be concerned "lest continued costly set- tlements on the West Bank endanger social benefits." If the Palestinians would accept that armed struggle has become "an impossible, romantic dream" the situa- tion would favor new initia- tives toward peace. American success in deal- ing with the Middle East, Neumann warns, will de- pend "on its ability to retain a sense of proportion in all its relations with Middle East and superpower par- ties and, while doing so, to master the traditional Mid- dle East game of opposing and cooperating at the same time." , Bring your family and join "our family"! FOR AN Open House Sunday, January 29, 1984 (Snow Date March 4, 1984) Talk, Tour, Observe, Question, Share and Enjoy! LOWER SCHOOL MIDDLE & UPPER SCHOOLS (Pre K-4) 1:00-3:00 p.m. 3600 South Bradway Boulevard Birmingham 48010 647-2522 (Grades 5-8 and 9-12) 3:00-5:00 p.m. 22305 West Thirteen Mile Road Birmingham 48010 646-7717 NOTICE OF NON-DISCRIMINATORY POLICY AS TO STUDENTS Detroit Country Day School admits students of any race, color, national and ethnic origin to all the rights, privileges, programs and activities generally accorded or made available to students at the school. It does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national and ethnic origin in administration of its educational policies, admissions policies, scholarship and loan programs and athletic and other school-administered programs. Detroit Country Day School Next Admission Testing March 10, 1984 W W—V—is sin "-- t -Ttr- v- • 7, • 4 •