THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
War in Persian Gulf Rips False Veneer
of Simplicity from Middle East Affairs
By ARNO HERZBERG
(Copyright 1980, JTA, Inc.)
One can never be sure in
the Middle East. Today's
friend may be tomorrow's
enemy. Today's solemn
pledges of support and
brotherhood may be forgot-
ten if tomorrow's changes
require a different lineup
among the Arab nations.
This is the nature of the
instability in the Middle
East and if the Persian Gulf
war between Iraq and Iran
can teach a lesson to West-
ern policymakers, it is that
'-he Israeli-Arab conflict is
not the single issue that is
decisive for war and peace
in the area. It is not the
Arab-Israeli problem which
will have to be solved if the
flow of much needed oil to
the West is to continue and
a constant threat to world
peace be eliminated.
Iraq went to war against
Iran after cancelling a
treaty signed in 1975. No-
body in the Arab world or in
the United Nations objected
to this breach of an agree-
ment nor did they condemn
Iraq for occupying part of
Iranian soil. We know that
in the case of Israel the
United Nations applies
different yardsticks. But
the ever-present question
for Israel is how much a sig-
nature on a piece of paper
can be trusted.
One single act of a
single state can undo the
work of all peacemakers.
If the balance of power
shifts, what counts are
the battallions a state can
muster and the morale of
its people their leaders
can rely on.
There are so many con-
tradictions and question
marks in this Persian Gulf
war, some good for Israel,
some bad. It will take time
before a clear picture
emerges. We see now a pro-
longed struggle between
Iraq and Iran which will
weaken both parties and
prevent thenpfrom starting
any military adventure. In
Israel's War of Indepen-
dence in 1948 and again in
the Yom Kippur War of
1973 Iraqi forces were fight-
ing Israel.
The Iraqi army, with 12
divisions, 2,000 tanks and
500 planes is a force to be
reckoned with. If Iran can
fight them to a stalemate,
they will be tied down for
many months to come.
On the other hand, Iran's
forces, not in such a disar-'
ray as Western - observers"
and Arab potentates made
us believe, will have their
hands full to pin down Iraq's
army. Both Iran and Iraq
will have to watch each
other, never sure whether a
settlement of the territorial
question will hold.
It will take years to re-
build the oil refineries in
both countries, to bring
oil shipments to their
pre-war level and to re-
store the wealth of these
two combattants. In the
meantime, they. may be
dependent on foreign aid
of other oil sheiks. Even
the United States might
be tempted to buy new
"friends" in this part of
the globe.
Nobody knows to what
extent the other Arab states
will interfere in this war.
They have taken sides,
some in the expectation that
a fast Iraq victory will find
them in a comfortable posi-
tion. Jordan jumped on the
Iraqi bandwagon in the
early stages of the conflict.
Syria nolk backs Iran.
There is no doubt that the
war has dealti a serious blow
to the prestige of the Pales-
tinian Liberation Organiza-
tion. Their offer to mediate
the conflict has been rebuf-
fed. Their moves have made
both parties suspicious of
them.
The PLO has so far been
allied with Iran. Yasir
Arafat had high hopes of
benefiting from Aytollah
Khomeini's revolution.
Now he may regret that he
ever accepted the Israeli
Embassy building in Tehe-
ran as a gift from his
grateful host.
In the eyes of his fellow
Arabs, especially the
Saudi Arabian rulers,
Arafat's ties to the Ira-
nian revolution proved to
be a tactical mistake. The
rich, conservative states
of the Gulf region do not
want to surrender to any
revolution, Islamic or
otherwise. Anything that
denotes 'change is not to
their liking. They figure it
can only work against
them. _
They see, too, that Arab
nationalism has suffered a
setback, Saudi Arabia had
to request American aid.
The Saudis had to raise oil
production to a record level
of over 10 million barrels a
day. They do -not do it to
please the Western powers
and to make up the loss of oil
from Iraq and Iran. They
know that much is at stake
for them.
There is not only the
question of the outcome of
the Iran-Iraq hostilities.
The Saudis have to ask
themselves: if Iran becomes
desperate, will the Saudi
oilfields be secure or will
they be destroyed in a single
blow since Saudi Arabia is
backing Iraq in this strug-
gle?
And in the background
lurks the Russian bear,
casting a shadow over
the region which will re-
main there for a longtime
to come. So far the Rus-
sians have tried to play
both sides. They have
shipped arms to Iraq, un-
loading them in the Jor-
danian port of Aqaba.
But they have, at the
same time, concluded a
friendship treaty with
Syria which is support-
ing Iran.
The Saudis cannot be too
happy with the United
States clearly leaning
towards Iran in a desperate
effort to pry loose the hos-
tages. What will be the price
they are • going to ask from
the West and from America
for their alledgedly con-
ciliatory attitude? The
question of Jerusalem has
been breached ever so often
in diplomatic exchanges.
The Saudis complain of
the U.S. anti-boycott laws
that hamper their business.
The $100 billion a year that
pour into this sheikdom can
be a very persuasive
weapon, especially if they
are used to penetrate the
economies of the West.
Nevertheless, the Gulf
War and the newly formed
relationships provide Israel
—. at least temporarily —
with a breather. Now and
.
Friday, December 12, 1980 21
CREATIVE TABLES, INC. LTD.
for some time to come the
Arab-Israeli conflict will
not be at the center of Euro-
pean and American con-
cerns. The picture has
changed, although it will
take some time before the
diplomats will realize it.
Negotiations between
Egypt and Israel with the
participation of America
will drag on. But every-
body will play a waiting
game. Israel thinks that
the Gulf war has di-
minished the need for
more concessions. The
elections in the United
States might change the
picture.
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