Friday, Mardi 10, 1978 15

THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

1

Boris Smolar's

`Between You
. . . and Me

Editor-in-Chief
Emeritus, JTA

(Copyright 1978, JTA, Inc.)
THE "VANISHING" JEW: More and more demog-
raphic studies are now being made by experts, all predict-
ing "the coming shrinkage" of the Jewish population in this
country. Reasons for this prediction include reduced birth-
rate, growing intermarriage, assimilation, the breaking
down of traditional family ties, increases in the number"of
Jewish divorces, escalation in the number of "one-parent"
families, and other factors.
The conclusions of these studies are causing great con-
cern to Jewish community leaders. But some are inclined to
think that demographic predictions are like weather fore-
casts — some come true and others not. It all depends on
developments which the march of time may bring. And
developments do not always run in a forseen way. Our
sages had a word for it. They said: "Ma Sheyaaseh Haz-
m an Lo Yaasseh Ha'Sekhel" —"What Time May Bring,
the Mind May Not."
This does not mean that the communities — especially
the larger ones — are doing nothing to analyze the prob-
lems threatening the community with decline. On the con-
trary, they are thinking of measures to stem such decline.
Some 25 years ago there were only a little more than
5,000,000 Jews in the United States. Today there are
5,776,000, which is three-quarters of a million more. The
present total of the Jewish population is higher than that of
five years ago, when it was estimated at 5,732,000. This
estimate, published in the American Jewish Year Book,
was made by Alvin Chenkin, head of the Statistical De-
partment of the Council of Jewish Federations and Welfare
Funds. Today's total of the Jewish population is, however,
smaller than that of 1971 which reached the highest point
in American Jewish history — an estimated 6,060,000.
The drastic decline in Jewish birth-rate is being given by
demographers as one of the major causes of the projected
shrinking of the Jewish community. The present birth-rate
among Jews is lower than among non-Jews. It is below the
"Zero-Population" mark, with the difference being made up
partly by the fact that there are more elderly Jews because
of longevity. The estimate of some experts is that should the
present low birth-rate continue, the Jewish population will
be reduced to 4,000,000 within the next 70 years.
Sociologists assert that if Jewish families would start
having at least three children, the Jewish community may
not need to fear a "coming shrinkage."
THE ENEMY WITHIN: Reduced fertility is, however,
not the only major factor in the drop in the Jewish popula-
tion. Intermarriage is just as dangerous for the future of the
community: All the demographic studies aggree that in-
termarriage will continue to grow.
• Taking into account conversions into Judaism as well as
out of Judaism — and the dropping of religious affiliations
by both members of an intermarried couple — intermar-
riage is reported to produce a net Jewish loss of about one
quarter in cases where the Jewish spouse is a Catholic or a
Protestant. In cases where Jews marry members of minor,
"neutral" religions, such as Ethical Culture of Univer-
salism, the net population loss is almost one half. Few
adherents of minor religions — or those lacking religions
affiliation at all — adopt Judaism, while many Jews in-
volved in such unions informally drop their prior religiou's
affiliation. They and their children are definitely a loss to
the Jewish community.
In the case of reduced Jewish fertility, the community
can still attempt to combat the tendency to have less chil-
dren by developing programs of intensified propaganda.
Also through special communal aid to larger Jewish
families, as in the case in Israel and in -other countries
seeking to stimulate an increase in births. However, there
is no effective cure against the growth in intermarriage.
This was brought out at a Conference on Jewish Population
sponsored by the Federation of Jewish Philanthropies of
New York.
ACCENT ON EDUCATION: Given the voluntaristic
nature of Jewish life in this country — and the attrition of
those forces that have inhibited Jewish population erosion
in the past — only a determined and comprehensive re-
sponse by the entire organized Jewish community could
hopefully check the coming shrinkage in American Jewry.
This view was advanced at great length and in scholarly
'terms by Dr. Saul P. Wachs, dean of Gratz College, who was
one of the principal speakers at the conference. He listed
the dimension of the problem and laid special stress on the
need for a better Jewish education. Jewish population ero-
sion, he asserted, can best'be affected by helping Jews to
become better Jews deriving greater meaning from their
Jewishness. At the same time, he emphasized that Jewish
education can contribute little or. nothing towards the re-
versal of the two threatening trends in Jewish life — zero-
population growth and assimiliation - intermarriage -
- apostasy — unless its efforts are a part of a conscious stance
taken by the organized Jewish community.

Arabs to Get Helicopters From British Companies

LONDON (JTA) — Two
British companies have
concluded a deal to supply
helicopters to the Cairo-
based Arab military indus-
tries organization. They are
Westland Aircraft CO.
which manufactures the
Lynx helicopter, and Rolls
Royce, which supplies the
engines.
It is reported that a token
number of helicopters will
be supplied directly to
Egypt. But it is also planned
to establish an assembly
plant at Helwan in Egypt,
which could bring the total
number of helicopters
supplied to 200, worth an
eventual 400 million
Pounds Sterling.
The Arab military indus-

tries organization is fi-
nanced by Saudi•Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates,

Qatar and Egypt. It was es-
tablished in the wake of the
1973 Yom Kippur War`with

tion with American con-
cerns.
Meanwhile, the builder of
the French Mirage, the

ISRAEL?

the aim ormaking the Arab
states less dependent on
outside suppliers for arms
and spare parts. -

The Arab military in-
dustries organization
also plans to establish as-
sembly lines in countries
other than Egypt. At a
meeting in Abu Dhabi re-
cently, the military in-
dustries organization de-
cided to set up a company
for production of military
electronic equipment in
Saudi Arabia in coopera-

Dassault Co.; denied
American reports that
Egypt has bought 46 Mirage
F-1s in recent weeks.

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