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THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
Friday, August 1, 1975 25
MOVING? Authors Want Talks on M.E. Nuclear War
NEW YORK (JTA) — The
world's superpowers should
immediately begin contin-
gency planning for a nuclear
confrontation in the Middle
East so that effects of any
such event do not spread to
world atomic war, two in-
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:C..
J.,
contingency planning for
severely isolating the zone
of atomic warfare and for
terminating hostilities at
the earliest possible date."
The authors do not find
nuclear war in the Middle
East inevitable, nor do they
suggest that a fifth round of
conventional warfare is
inescapable. The study looks
toward the worst possible
case, in which warfare con-
tinues and escalates into the
use of nuclear weapons.
There are indications that
nuclear weapons may al-
ready be present in the Mi-
deast, the authors say. They
cite programs of research
and other peaceful applica-
tions of nuclear energy un-
derway for some time in
Egypt, Iraq and Israel (in-
cluding Israel's advances in
the new technology of laser
enrichment of uranium) and
note the mystery surround-
ing current operations in at
least one Middle East reac-
tor center — Israel's Di-
mona facility.
Nuclear war could be
prompted by a number of
factors, Pranger and Tah-
tinen say. They examine
several scenarios, includ-
ing a feeling by one side or
the other that its national
survival is threatened; the
use of tactical nuclear
weapons for interdiction of
the enemy's approaching
forces or behind the lines
bases or supplies, and
preemptive use when intel-
ligence indicates that an
opponent might strike
first, leaving little chance
for repulsing the enemy by
conventional means.
A preemptive attack, the
authors say, would he the
most dangerous use of un-
conventional arms in the
Middle East, with grave re-
percussions for both the re-
gion and the world.
"If Israel were to stage a
preemptive strike against
the Arabs, the Societ Union
might take drastic action
against Israel, with the U.
S. (depending on the nature
of the Soviet retaliation)
moving in turn against the
USSR. If the Arab states
were similarly to attack Is-
rael, the United States
might take retaliatory
steps, leading to a Russian
reaction of some kind," they
point out:
The authe -r§ lay out a
four-part which they sug-
gest should constitute
Amerca's response to nu-
clear war in the Middle
East.
First, they suggest exami-
nation of the "nuclear code
of good conduct" between
Moscow and Washington to
see if it is strong enough to
withstand corrosive forces
once medium powers use
nuclear weapons.
Second, they raise the
possibliity of rationing
technology which could
lead to a nuclear weapons
capability. "Can progress
in the development of nu-
clear weapons be slowed
down, if not stopped en-
tirely?" they ask.
• Thirdly, the authors dis-
cuss the possibility of
strengthening controls on
supplying nuclear-capable
military equipment by the
superpowers.
Finally, the hest means of
isolating a Mideast nuclear
confrontation —.and termi-
nating it — they suggest, is
the full-scale perparation of
an American peacekeeping
force, perhaps in coopera-
tion with a Soviet one, capa-
ble of dealing with all as-
pects of an environment
revaged by nuclear weap-
ons.
"Without the suggested
contingency planning . . .
nuclear war in the Middle
East could well spread to
world atomic war, a wildfire
whose only containment
would come when it de-
voured itself," they con-
clude.
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We go forth all to seek
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we
•
HARVARD ROW MALL
ternational defense experts
warn.
Drs. Robert. J. Pranger
and Dale R. Tahtinen, au-
thors of "Nuclear Threat in
the Middle East," a 57-page
study released by the Amer-
ican Enterprise Institute for
Public Policy Research, ana-
lyze the possibilities of a nu-
clear confrontation between
the Arab states and Israel
and conclude that if war is
not curbed in the Middle
East, it will eventually be-
come nuclear.
Pranger and Tahtinen
are, respectively, director
and assistant director of
foreign and defense policy
studies at the institute.
They also have coauthored
"Toward a Realistic Mili-
tary Assistance Program."
Pranger is former deputy
assistant secretary for de-
fense for international secu-
rity affairs. Tahtinen is a
former assistant for re-
search and legislative analy-
sis to Sen. Robert P. Griffin
(R-Mich.).
"The best national secu-
rity option for the United
States, the Soviet Union,
the Arab countries and
Israel is a just and lasting
peace settlement at the
earliest possible date," the
authors stress in a preface
to the volume. But they
recommend that the U.S.
prepare unilaterally and
in consultation with the
Soviet Union for possible
nuclear war in the Middle
East, the consultation
being on "an informal,
low-key basis."
Included in such prepara-
tion, they state, "should be
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— Waldo Frank
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