Friday, August 1, 1975 21
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
Scholar Sees No
Arab Oil Weapon
Israeli scholar Uzi Arad,
writing in the July 14 issue
of the Wall Street Journal,
said that the U.S. depend-
ence on Arab oil is grossly
exaggerated, and that the
Arab-oil embargo weapon in
any new Mideast crisis is ov-
erstated, especially for the
U.S.
Arad said Federal Energy
Administration data indi-
cates that at the end of the
first quarter of 1975 Arab
oil producers supplied 22.7%
of U.S. petroleum imports.
While this figure marks
an increase over the average
of the last quarter of 1974
(17.9%), it still compares
favorably with the signifi-
cantly higher levels of de-
pendence on Arab oil —
29.4% — exhibited in the
months just prior to the
1973 Arab oil embargo.
Thus, Arad said, the
U.S. is less dependent now
on Arab oil than it was
prior to the embargo. The
volume of imported Arab
oil declined from 1.8 mil-
lion barrels a day in the
third quarter of 1973 to 1.3
million barrels a day in the
first quarter of 1975.
Seen in the perspective of
total U.S. energy con-
sumption, that share of
Arab oil declined from 4.9%
to 3.8%. Obviously this is a
far cry from European or
Japanese rates, which indi-
cate a dependence on Arab
oil as an energy source at
levels eight or nine times
higher.
The implications of such a
low American degree of de-
pendence on the Arabs are
two-fold, he said.
First, the U.S. remains by
and large independent of
Arab oil and therefore quite
invulnerable to direct Arab
oil pressure.
Second, when measured
by its import-dependence
rate, the U.S. currently
enjoys a smaller degree of
vulnerability compared to
pre-embargo 1973, not a
higher one.
That the U.S. was invul-
nerable in 1973 to Arab oil
pressure might seem con-
tradicted by the most dra-
matic manifestation of a
real shortage — the long
gasoline lines of that dread-
ful winter.
Yet, far from being an
inevitable product of the
Arab embargo, the gas lines
were actually caused by
faulty management on the
part of the Federal Energy
Office whereby, first, stocks
were actually built up dur-
ing the embargo rather than
down and, second, gasoline
was misallocated by impro-
vised FEO regulations on re-
fineries.
Furthermore,
Arad
wrote, all Arab oil-export-
, ing countries today are
producing substantially be-
low their pre-embargo lev-
els.
In November 1973, the
most severe month of the
OAPEC embargo, the Ar-
abs produced 15.8 million
barrels per day. In Febru-
ary 1975, total Arab pro-
duction did not even reach
14 million barrels per day.
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That is to say, current
Arab production cutbacks to
sustain high oil prices have
been more extensive than
their most extreme embargo
cutbacks.
Arad also said that larger
stocks of oil in Western na-
tions would also prohibit
the use of a real or imagined
Arab oil weapon again.
He recommended that the
U.S. can become even more
independent from Arab oil
by dealing with non-Arab
suppliers and increasing its
storage capacity.
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He concluded by saying
the present oil situation
need not worry us too
much but certain present
administration policies
should.
The sad aspect of all this
is that instead of remaining
calm while moving judi- -
ciously to reduce whatever
vulnerability there exists,
the administration is reveal-
ing an exaggerated degree
of concern over a possible
embargo, without taking
any concrete action to dis-
courage it or to mitigate its
potential consequences.
Such an attitude is self-
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could encourage, rather,
than deter, the very em-
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If you get into the practice
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In the Mezuza is a little
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Psoriasis is a very hard
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A Dutch scientist recently
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