Israel's Immio- ration Cycle to Swing Upward?
Ity
SALPETER
t. Inc.)
teupy riot(
Israel finally entering the up-
ward phase of what is now recog-
nised as a seven- to eight-year
immigration ,'vile . ' This is a vit:i.1
ooestion for Israel both in the
short term and in the long term
view : In t he short run, an up-
in, in immigration - bolster.;
Israin i s -'and against the Arab
!On. - In the king
- Is :I r of a f
run. it should also imply an im-
provement in the cultural and
scientific - te:hnological composi-
tion of the lamination—something
o nce crucial vis-a-vis
that may
the expected population explosion
in Egypt.
As for the :timer:11 trend in the
increase of the Jewish popula-
tion of Palestine and Israel, two
set , of data are of great interest.
Hanoch Smith, American-born
top expert of the Central Bureau
of Statistics of Israel, pointed out
rc • oily. Israel's Jewish tumula-
Bon is increasing by about 500.-
ow each seven to eight years.
But it took 60 years for this same
increase from the beginning of
Zio•i-T immigrat i on to Palestine
in 1882 until 1941 when most doors
of tinier occupied Europe were
shut ureventing the escape of the
doomed Jewish comm unities there.
Between 1941 and 1949. the end
of the first full year of Israel's
inde, undence, the Jewish popula-
tion of the country grew from
5ctiu:'0 to 1.060.00J, most of the
newcomers being refugees and
survivors of the holocaust. It took
tour years for another 500,-
011
non increase--from the end of 1949
to the beginning of 1954. This
rapid growth was due to the con-
tinence of the remnant of Euro-
r :an refugees with the stream of
new refugees from persecution in
the Arab countries, primarily
Yemen and Iraq.
Between 1954 and 1962, there
',vas another 500,000 increase and
by Feb. 1970 there will be yet an-
other 500,000 more Jews in the
country. bringing the total to 2,500,-
01,0,
Actually, of course, this is a
slowdown in the rate of increase:
growing from 500,000 to 1,000,-
001) in eight years is a 100 per
Is
of the four years. Then there was
a drastic drop—the lowest in Is-
rael's 22 years of existence: only
17.000 new comers per annum.
Next, in 1955-57, there came :nu
other surge: 54.000 immigrants in
each of the three years. This was
followed by a three-year low in
1958-60: only 24,000 arrivals each
year. And again, the four years
of 1961-64 saw an upswing: 55,090
annually.
The economic recession that pre-
ceded the Six-Day War brought
immigration to a new low and in
1965-68 there came only about
18,000 in each of the four years.
In 1969, there were about 35.000
new arrivals and the forecast for
the new year is between 40-50.000
depending on the forecaster's
optimism. What is no less impor-
tant for Israel is that about half
of last year's immigrants and
those expected this year came
from Western Europe and the
Americas. The special significance
of this lies in the fact that about
a quarter of the heads of family
among these new immigrants had
at least BA and MA degrees.
many of them in various fields of
modern science and technology.
All this is seen here in light of
the forecast of the population ex-
plosion in Egypt in the next few
decades. Over half of Egypt's pre-
Growing from
cent increase.
2,000,000 to 2,500,000 in eight
years is only a 25 per cent in-
crease. Indeed, it is unlikely that
Israel will ever repeat the dra-
matc and incredible period of
1950 to 1951 when the 175,000
new immigrants who poured into
the country each year represent-
ed a 17 and 14 per cent jump in
the Jewish population per annum.
The other interesting set of fig-
ures demonstrates the periodic
cycles of immigration. The first
high was in 1948-1951, when an
average of 171.000 entered in each
sent population of 33,000,000 is
under 21 years of age. Unless there
is a considerable—and successful
—birth control campaign there.
Ert,t,18 will have about 60,000,000
people by 1990. Even under the
most favorable circumstances, it is
improbable that Israel could
achieve more-than a proportionally
similar growth. that is, to have a
population of about 5,000,000 by
1990. Thus, whereas now there are
about - 30,000,000 more Egyptian,:
than Jews. 20 years front now,
there will be 55,000,000 noire of
them.
Under these circumstances, Is-
rael will be able to hold her own
only if the qualitative gap between
her people and the Arabs not
merely remains but is widened. To
attain this, Israel will have to
have many, many more immi-
grants from the West.
it itittigllt
photography
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